CV NEWS FEED // The Cook Political Report, a leading political analysis newsletter, moved the states of Virginia and New Mexico from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” in its assessment of likely 2024 election results on Tuesday.
The news comes as President Joe Biden continues to struggle in the polls in several states nationwide, specifically with black and Hispanic voters.
“Virginia and New Mexico are the only two states in our Solid Democrat column that Biden carried by 11 points or less in 2020,” noted Cook Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter. “Given the current polling, they are now in the mid-single digit range and, as such, move into the Likely Democrat column.”
She wrote that while the team of handicappers at Cook believes the two states “are at low risk of flipping to [former President Donald] Trump, they are no longer the ‘gimmes’ a Solid Democrat rating suggests.”
If Trump were to pull off a November upset in either state, he would accomplish something no other Republican presidential candidate has in two decades. George W. Bush. He carried both states with his successful re-election bid in 2004.
Virginia
Formerly a bastion of conservatism, Virginia voted for the Republican nominee in every election from 1968 until 2004 – but has not gone red since.
Recent polling shows change may be on the horizon, however.
In her analysis, Walter cited a FOX News poll from last week that showed Biden and Trump “in a dead heat” in Virginia.
The poll “shows Biden and Trump with 48% each in a head-to-head matchup in the Old Dominion State,” FOX reported.
Trump’s unexpected competitiveness in Virginia may be due to his surging support among black voters, which is reaching levels unheard of for a Republican presidential candidate in the past half-decade.
“While Biden leads among Black voters, it is nowhere near where he was in 2020,” FOX noted. “In 2020, Biden won Blacks by 81 points, compared to 48 points in the new survey. Trump nearly triples his share among Black voters: 9% in 2020 to 25% today.”
>> BIDEN HEMORRHAGING SUPPORT AMONG YOUNG VOTERS <<
If polling trends hold and Trump manages to win over 20% of the black vote nationwide, he will be the first Republican presidential candidate to do so since Richard Nixon in 1960.
Walter wrote: “The fact that the Biden campaign is spending as much time reaching out to Black voters as they are suggests that they too are worried about lagging support from this critical constituency.”
Walter remained skeptical that Biden will perform as poorly with black voters as many recent polls might indicate.
“I’m not convinced that Trump will ultimately hit the 19-30% share of the Black vote that he’s getting in polls today,” Walter stated. “To me, the bigger danger for Biden is that many Black voters may stay home.”
Four years ago, Biden won Virginia by just over 10 points.
The state had also voted Democratic in the previous three presidential elections. Hillary Clinton carried it by a five-point margin in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won Virginia by six points in both 2008 and 2012.
>> TEAM BIDEN SOUNDS ALARM ON DWINDLING RE-ELECTION CHANCES <<
From 2004 to 2008, Virginia swung 14 points to the left. Bush carried it by eight points during both of his bids for the White House.
Recent Democratic success in Virginia is largely due to the populous cluster of deep-blue Washington D.C. suburbs in its north.
Virginia has notably voted for Republicans in recent statewide elections, however.
In 2021, Virginia’s Republican Party narrowly swept its top three statewide offices with the elections of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, and Attorney General Jason Miyares.
Youngkin led that year’s Republican slate to a series of upset victories after his Democratic opponent former Gov. Terry McAuliffe made headlines for saying during a debate: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”
New Mexico
Walter wrote that “[t]here hasn’t been any recent public polling in” New Mexico, but “[o]ne well-placed Republican source recently shared data showing Biden’s lead down to around four points there, in line with similar shifts in Arizona and Nevada.”
“And because 43% of New Mexico’s citizen voting-age population is Hispanic, Biden’s struggles with that group are expected to have a particularly pronounced effect in the Land of Enchantment,” Walter highlighted.
Indeed, polling has consistently shown Biden underperforming in battleground states with significant Hispanic and Latino populations.
Last month, a New York Times / Siena poll found that in Nevada, Trump was leading Biden by 12 points among registered voters and 13 points among likely voters.
As CatholicVote noted: “Roughly 20% of Nevada’s voters are Hispanic.”
>> NYT POLL: TRUMP UP DOUBLE DIGITS IN NEVADA <<
The same polling found Trump leading in the crucial swing state of Arizona by seven points among registered voters and six points among likely voters.
Hispanic and Latino voters make up about a quarter of the electorate in the state.
An Axios / Ipsos poll “measured the change in Latino voters’ favorability ratings of Biden and Trump from December 2021 to March 2024,” CatholicVote reported:
It found that over this period of time, Biden’s average favorability rating among Latinos fell 12 points (from 53% to 41%), while Trump’s favorability rating among Latinos increased by eight points (from 24% to 32%).
Therefore, Axios noted that in the last two years and four months of his presidency, Biden’s favorability “advantage over Trump among all Latinos” fell by a total of 20 points (from 29% to 9%).
“Biden’s lead shrinks even further — to 3 points — among Latinos who said they plan to vote in November.”
>> POLL: LATINO VOTERS TURNING ON BIDEN, TRENDING TOWARD TRUMP <<
In 2020, Biden carried New Mexico by a 10.8% margin. The state voted for Clinton by eight points in 2016, for Obama by 10 points in 2012, and for Obama by 15 points in 2008.
In 2004, Bush eked out a win in New Mexico, besting Democratic nominee John Kerry by less than one percent.
The post Virginia & New Mexico no longer ‘solid’ blue states due to minority voters shifting to Trump appeared first on CatholicVote org.