CV NEWS FEED // American men are significantly less likely to want to get married or raise a family, according to a recent analysis from religious statistician Ryan Burge.
Burge analyzed data from the Cooperative Election Study, which asks participants about their marital status. He found that in 2008, men tended to get married around 29 years old, while women were usually around 25. In 2022, men’s average age jumped to 34 years old, while women’s average age increased to 29.
In just fifteen years, the average age of first marriage for both men and women jumped by about 4.5 years. If this trend continues, by 2040, the average man won’t walk down the aisle until his late thirties,” Burge wrote.
Burge pointed out that women are also significantly more likely to get married than men—in 2022, about 65% of 30-year-old men had never been married, compared to 48% of 30-year-old women.
Burge then broke the data down by political party and faith to see if those factors play a role in the decrease of marriages. While liberals tended to get married later than conservatives, he found that 37% of 40-year-old male liberals had never been married, while only 30% of conservative males of the same age had never been married.
He noted that women are largely less likely to remain unmarried. Almost 75% of 40-year-old liberal women had been married at least once, and 85% of conservative women had been married before they turned 40.
When Burge divided the data by religion, he found that the disparity between men and women who had been married before was smaller among Christians of any denomination. Among Americans of other faiths or those who identified as “nones,” women were still significantly more likely than men to get married.
For example, half of the female nones were married by their 30th birthday, whereas it took until the age of 35 for the majority of male nones to marry. A 40-year-old male Christian is approximately 10 percentage points more likely to be married than a male none of the same age,” he wrote.
Burge then broke the data down by tracking the number of Americans currently parenting a child. Only one third of 30-year-old men were parenting, but for 30-year-old women, the number was 50%. Burge additionally found that 65% of women between the ages of 35 and 40 were currently parenting young children.
“So, not only are women much more likely to get married they are also much more likely to become parents, as well. In essence it’s like women are trying to maintain some of the traditional familial institutions in American society while men have decided that this is not the direction they want their life to go,” he wrote.
Burge also further divided CES participants by birth year, grouping five years together at one time into “cohorts.” Adults born between 1955 and 1959, as well as adults born between 1960 and 1965 had a smaller gender gap between unmarried men and women. In the 1956-1969 “cohort,” however, the gender gap began to widen and continued to grow in the following years. For those in the most recent cohort, born between 1995 and 2000, over half of men aged 28-32 have never been married and are childless.
Burge investigated why men might be less inclined to marry or raise a family—he found that liberal men with higher incomes and no religious affiliation tend to shy away from getting married. He also discovered that non-whites are more likely to remain single or not have children.
But there’s one really weird result that’s worth ruminating on—education,” he continued. “For men, having a higher level of education makes one less likely to stay single and never have kids. Said another way—educated men settle down.”
“But for women, the coefficient is in the opposite direction,” he continued. “Meaning more highly educated women are more likely to be single and childless between the ages of 35 and 50 after controlling for race, income, ideology and religion.”
Burge concluded that “men are less likely to take the traditional steps into adulthood than women” but added that the factors leading to that decision are completely different between the two genders.
“There’s a lot more to be written about this, of that I’m certain,” he wrote.
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