Alaska’s 2026 Senate race has suddenly become competitive after Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola announced a challenge to Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, prompting forecasters to reassess a seat long considered safely Republican.
A new poll from Alaska Survey Research, conducted Jan. 8-11 before Peltola formally entered the race, shows her narrowly leading Sullivan 48% to 46.4%, with 5.6% undecided. Respondents were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. The survey of more than 2,100 Alaska adults, including nearly 2,000 registered voters, also found Peltola with a higher favorability rating, 46% positive compared with 39% for Sullivan.
Peltola’s Jan 12 announcement has drawn renewed national attention to the race and triggered fresh analysis of Alaska’s electoral landscape.
CatholicVote Vice President of Advocacy Joshua Mercer criticized Peltola’s record in Congress and urged voters to defeat her candidacy.
“Mary Peltola was elected to Congress and immediately sided with the radical Biden-Harris administration by casting a vote in favor of taxpayer funding of sex-change operations for members of the military. Someone confused about their biology should not be in the military,” Mercer said. “Alaska voters rejected Mary Peltola in 2024, and we’re determined to ensure that happens again in 2026.”
Despite the initial buzz stemming from her newly-announced candidacy, there are some indications she is not on track for a win. Peltola flipped Alaska’s lone House seat in 2022, a rare Democratic win in a state that backed President Donald Trump by wide margins in all three of his presidential races, The Hill reported. But she lost reelection just two years later to Republican challenger Nick Begich.
While Democratic Party operatives telegraph optimism about her, election analysts are more measured in their response to the challenger. The Cook Political Report shifted the race from “Safe Republican” to “Lean Republican” following Peltola’s announcement. The shift places Alaska among the more closely watched Senate contests on the 2026 map.
Sullivan, first elected in 2014 and reelected by a 13-point margin in 2020, has highlighted his record on national security, energy development, and Alaska-specific priorities such as the strengthening of fisheries and the state’s military presence. Alaska Moderate Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski endorsed Sullivan Jan. 12, according to local outlet KTUU, despite her past support for Peltola in 2022 and 2024.
Peltola is leaning into her crossover appeal, particularly among independents and nonpartisan voters. In the video announcing her bid, Peltola framed the campaign around an “Alaska First” message and pointed to inflation as a top concern for voters.
With the general election scheduled for Nov. 3 and primaries in August, early indicators suggest Alaska could become a focal point as Democrats look for a narrow path to reclaiming control of the Senate.
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