Virginia races tighten as Election Day nears

Virginia’s top statewide races are tightening just days before Election Day, as Republicans close the gap in the state’s three major contests for governor, attorney general, and lieutenant governor.

According to the RealClearPolitics polling average of surveys conducted Oct. 6-21, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger holds a 7.1-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. 

A Trafalgar Group survey conducted Oct. 13-15 found Spanberger at 47.5% and Earle-Sears at 45.3%, the closest margin yet. The survey of 1,039 likely voters had a 2.9% margin of error. 

By contrast, a Washington Post poll taken Oct. 16-20 among 927 respondents showed the widest gap, with Spanberger leading 54% to 42%. 

Earle-Sears has leaned on support from President Donald Trump in the campaign’s final stretch. Last week, she reposted a video of Trump praising her candidacy, saying, “The Republican candidate is excellent and I think the Democrat candidate is a disaster.”

Trump also weighed in on Truth Social last week, urging voters in Virginia and New Jersey to back Republican candidates. 

“A Republican vote means a drastic drop in energy prices and energy costs, a drop like you’ve never seen before! — A Democrat vote means a doubling, and even tripling, of your energy bills and prices, traditionally the highest cost of an American citizen!” he wrote in all caps.

Meanwhile, the state’s race for attorney general has flipped in favor of Republicans, roughly three weeks after the publication of Democrat Jay Jones’ murderous text messages from 2022. As CatholicVote reported, Jones had mused in a text chain about shooting a Republican lawmaker and fantasized about the deaths of another Republican’s children. Though he has apologized, the controversy has led to calls for him to withdraw.

>> Virginia Democrat Jay Jones touts Catholicism on campaign trail amid falling poll numbers <<

The latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares leading Jones 46.4% to 44%. 

Since reports of the texts surfaced Oct. 3, Miyares has steadily gained ground in nearly every major poll, with margins ranging from a dead heat to a seven-point lead. Before the scandal broke, Jones led in most surveys, with advantages between one and 16 points. 

According to ABC7 News, in the lieutenant governor race, Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi is in a near tie with Republican John Reid at 44% to 43%.

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